US Global Power in the Trump Period, an Assessment By James Petras Al-Jazeerah, CCUN, May 7, 2019

Introduction

US global power in the Trump period reflects the continuities and changes which
are unfolding rapidly and deeply throughout the world and which are affecting the
position of Washington.

Assessing the dynamics of US global power is a complex problem which requires
examining multiple dimensions.

We will proceed by:

(1) Conceptualizing the principles which dictate empire building, specifically the
power bases and the dynamic changes in relations and structures which shape
the present and future position of the US.

(2) Identifying the spheres of influence and power and their growth and decline.

(3) Examining the regions of conflict and contestation.

(4) The major and secondary rivalries.

(5) The stable and shifting relations between existing and rising power centers.

(6) The internal dynamics shaping the relative strength of competing centers of
global power.

(7) The instability of the regimes and states seeking to retain and expand global
power.

Conceptualization of Global Power

US global power is built on several significant facts. These include: the US
victory in World War II, its subsequent advanced economy and dominant military
position throughout five continents.

The US advanced its dominance through a series of alliances in Europe via
NATO; Asia via its hegemonic relationship with Japan, South Korea, Philippines and
Taiwan as well as Australia and New Zealand in Oceana; Latin America via traditional
client regimes; Africa via neo-colonial rulers imposed following independence.
US global power was built around encircling the USSR and China, undermining
their economies and defeating their allies militarily via regional wars.

Post WWII global economic and military superiority created subordinated allies
and established US global power, but it created the bases for gradual shifts in relations of
dominance.

US global power was formidable but subject to economic and military changes
over time and in space.

US Spheres of Power: Then and Now

US global power exploited opportunities but also suffered military setbacks early
on, particularly in Korea, Indo-China and Cuba. The US spheres of power were clearly
in place in Western Europe and Latin America but was contested in Eastern Europe and
Asia.

The most significant advance of US global power took place with the demise and
disintegration of the USSR, the client states in Eastern Europe, as well as the
transformation of China and Indo-China to capitalism during the 1980’s.

US ideologues declared the coming of a unipolar empire free of restraints and
challenges to its global and regional power. The US turned to conquering peripheral
adversaries. Washington destroyed Yugoslavia and then Iraq – fragmenting them into
mini-states. Wall Street promoted a multitude of multi-national corporations to invade
China and Indo-China who reaped billions of profits exploiting cheap labor.

The believers of the enduring rule of US global power envisioned a century of US
imperial rule.

In reality this was a short-sighted vision of a brief interlude.

The End of Unipolarity: New Rivalries and Global and Regional Centers of Power :
An Overview

US global power led Washington into ‘overreach’, in several crucial areas: it
launched a series of costly prolonged wars, specifically in Iraq and Afghanistan, which
had three negative consequences: the destruction of the Iraq armed forces and economy
led to the rise of the Islamic State which overtook most of the country; the occupation in
Afghanistan which led to the emergence of the Taliban and an ongoing twenty year war
which cost hundreds of billions of dollars and several thousand wounded and dead US
soldiers; as a result the majority of the US public turned negative toward wars and empire
building

The US pillage and dominance of Russia ended, when President Putin replaced
Yeltsin’s vassal state. Russia rebuilt its industry, science, technology and military power.
Russia’s population recovered its living standards.

With Russian independence and advanced military weaponry, the US lost its
unipolar military power. Nevertheless, Washington financed a coup which virtually
annexed two thirds of the Ukraine. The US incorporated the fragmented Yugoslavian
‘statelets’ into NATO. Russia countered by annexing the Crimea and secured a mini
state adjacent Georgia.

China converted the economic invasion of US multi-national corporations into
learning experiences for building its national economy and export platforms which
led to its becoming an economic competitor and rival to the US.

US global empire building suffered important setbacks in Latin America resulting
from the the so-called Washington Consensus. The imposition of neo-liberal policies
privatized and plundered their economies, impoverished the working and middle class,
and provoked a series of popular uprising and the rise of radical social movements and
center-left governments.

The US empire lost spheres of influence in some regions (China, Russia, Latin
America, Middle East) though it retained influence among elites in contested regions and
even launched new imperial wars in contested terrain. Most notably the US attacked
independent regimes in Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Somalia and Sudan via armed proxies.
The change from a unipolar to a multi polar world and the gradual emergence of
regional rivals led US global strategists to rethink their strategy. The Trump regime’s
aggressive policies set the stage for political division within the regime and among allies.

The Obama – Trump Convergence and Differences on Empire Building

By the second decade of the 21st century several new global power alignments
emerged: China had become the main economic competitor for world power and Russia
was the major military challenger to US military supremacy at the regional level. The US
replaced the former European colonial empire in Africa. Washington’s sphere of
influence extended especially in North and Sub Sahara Africa: Kenya, Libya, Somalia
and Ethiopia. Trump gained leverage in the Middle East namely in Egypt, Saudi Arabia,
the Emirates, and Jordan.

Israel retained its peculiar role, converting the US as its sphere of influence.

But the US faced regional rivals for sphere of influence in Lebanon, Syria, Iran,
Iraq and Algeria.

In South Asia US faced competition for spheres of influence from China, India,
Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In Latin America sharp and abrupt shifts in spheres of influence were the norm.
US influence declined between 2000 – 2015 and recovered from 2015 to the present.

Imperial Power Alignments Under President Trump

President Trump faced complex global, regional and local political and economic
challenges.

Trump followed and deepened many of the policies launched by the Obama-
Hillary Clinton policies with regard to other countries and regions . However Trump also
radicalized and/or reversed policies of his predecessors. He combined flattery and
aggression at the same time.

At no time did Trump recognize the limits of US global power. Like the previous
three presidents he persisted in the belief that the transitory period of a unipolar global
empire could be re-imposed.

Toward Russia, a global competitor, Trump adopted a policy of ‘rollback’.
Trump imposed economic sanctions, with the strategic ‘hope’ that by impoverishing
Russia, degrading its financial and industrial sectors that he could force a regime change
which would convert Moscow into a vassal state.

At the beginning of his Presidential campaign Trump flirted with the notion of a
business accommodation with Putin. However, Trump’s ultra-belligerent appointments
and domestic opposition soon turned him toward a highly militarized strategy, rejecting
military – including nuclear – agreements, in favor of military escalation.

Toward China, Trump faced a dynamic and advancing technological competitor.
Trump resorted to a ‘trade war’ that went far beyond ‘trade’ to encompass a war against

Beijing’s economic structure and social relations. The Trump regime-imposed sanctions
and threatened a total boycott of Chinese exports.

Trump and his economic team demanded China privatize and denationalize its
entire state backed industry. They demanded the power to unilaterally decide when
violations of US rules occurred and to be able to re-introduce sanctions without
consultations. Trump demanded all Chinese technological agreements, economic sectors
and innovations were subject and open to US business interests. In other words, Trump
demanded the end of Chinese sovereignty and the reversal of the structural base for its
global power. The US was not interested in mere ‘trade’ – it wanted a return to imperial
rule over a colonized China.

The Trump regime rejected negotiations and recognition of a shared power
relation: it viewed its global rivals as potential clients.

Inevitably the Trump regime’s strategy would never reach any enduring
agreements on any substantial issues under negotiations. China has a successful strategy
for global power built on a 6 trillion-dollar world-wide Road and Belt (R and B)
development policy, which links 60 countries and several regions. R and B is building
seaports, rail and air systems linking industries financed by development banks.
In contrast, the US banks exploits industry, speculates and operates within closed
financial circuits. The US spends trillions on wars, coups, sanctions and other parasitical
activities which have nothing to do with economic competitiveness.

The Trump regime’s ‘allies’ in the Middle East namely Saudi Arabia and Israel,
are parasitic allies who buy protection and provoke costly wars.

Europe complains about China’s increase in industrial exports and overlook
imports of consumer goods. Yet the EU plans to resist Trump’s sanctions which lead to a
blind alley of stagnation!

Conclusion

The most recent period of the peak of US global power, the decade between
1989-99 contained the seeds of its decline and the current resort to trade wars, sanctions
and nuclear threats.

The structure of US global power changed over the past seven decades. The US
global empire building began with the US command over the rebuilding of Western
European economies and the displacement of England, France, Portugal and Belgium
from Asia and Africa.

The Empire spread and penetrated South America via US multi-national
corporations. However, US empire building was not a linear process as witness its
unsuccessful confrontation with national liberation movements in Korea, Indo China,
Southern Africa (Angola, Congo, etc.) and the Caribbean (Cuba). By the early 1960’s the
US had displaced its European rivals and successfully incorporated them as subordinate
allies.

Washington’s main rivals for spheres of influence was Communist China and the
USSR with their allies among client state and overseas revolutionaries.

The US empire builders’ successes led to the transformation of their Communist
and nationalist rivals into emergent capitalist competitors.

In a word US dominance led to the construction of capitalist rivals, especially
China and Russia.

Subsequently, following US military defeats and prolonged wars, regional powers
proliferated in the Middle East, North Africa, South Asia and Latin America. Regional
blocs competed with US clients for power.

The diversification of power centers led to new and costly wars. Washington lost
exclusive control of markets, resources and alliances. Competition reduced the spheres
of US power.

In the face of these constraints on US global power the Trump regime envisioned
a strategy to recover US dominance – ignoring the limited capacity and structure of US
political , economic and class relations.

China absorbed US technology and went on to create new advances without
following each previous stage.

Russia’s recovered from its losses and sanctions and secured alternative trade
relations to counter the new challenges to the US global empire. Trump’s regime
launched a ‘permanent trade war’ without stable allies. Moreover, he failed to

undermine China’s global infrastructure network; Europe demanded and secured
autonomy to enter into trade deals with China, Iran and Russia.

Trump has pressured many regional powers who have ignored his threats.

The US still remains a global power. But unlike the past, the US lacks the
industrial base to ‘make America strong’. Industry is subordinated to finance;
technological innovations are not linked to skilled labor to increase productivity.

Trump relies on sanctions and they have failed to undermine regional influentials.
Sanctions may temporarily reduce access to US markets’ but we have observed that new
trade partners take their place.

Trump has gained client regimes in Latin America, but the gains are precarious
and subject to reversal.

Under the Trump regime, big business and bankers have increased prices in the
stock market and even the rate of growth of the GDP, but he confronts severe domestic
political instability, and high levels of turmoil among the branches of government. In
pursuit of loyalty over competence, Trump’s appointments have led to the ascendancy of
cabinet officials who seek to wield unilateral power which the US no longer possesses.
Elliot Abrams can massacre a quarter-million Central Americans with impunity,
but he has failed to impose US power over Venezuela and Cuba. Pompeo can threaten
North Kore, Iran and China but these countries fortify alliances with US rivals and
competitors. Bolton can advance the interests of Israel but their conversations take place
in a telephone booth – it lacks resonance with any major powers.

Trump has won a presidential election, he has secured concessions from some
countries but he has alienated regional and diplomatic allies. Trump claims he is making
America strong, but he has undermined lucrative strategic multi-lateral trade agreements.

US ‘Global Power’ does not prosper with bully-tactics. Projections of power
alone, have failed – they require recognition of realistic economic limitations and the
losses from regional wars.

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