Listening and Learning: Arab Opinion Matters By James Zogby

I listened attentively to Syrian President Bashar al Assad's most recent speech in which he berated the Arab League's intervention to help stem the violence currently racking his country. Claiming that he was listening to his countrymen and speaking for them and that his regime was the standard-bearer of "Arabism,” al Assad denounced the League as not representing true Arab sentiment. For obvious reasons, we can't poll in Syria right now, but as the past ten months of mass protests and the unremitting and largely regime-sponsored violence have made clear, al Assad may speak for some, but certainly not all Syrians.

On the other hand, we have polled about Syria across the Arab World, and what we find is that it is al Assad who is out of touch with the reality of Arab opinion or, as he might put it, "the beating heart of Arabism.” In every country surveyed, including Egypt, Lebanon, and Jordan, we learn that overwhelming majorities of Arabs side with the Syrian demonstrators and say that it is time for the al Assad government to step down.

I love polling because it erases doubt as to what people are really thinking. What I have learned from my brother, John Zogby, is that when you survey public opinion, everyone’s views count. I call it the "respectful science.” You ask, they answer. Responses get organized by age, gender, education level attained, income, region, and more. When you present the results, it is as if you've opened a window, letting in the voices of a society, so that you hear what they are saying about their lives, their aspirations, and their attitudes.

I'm in the United Arab Emirates right now, teaching a short course on the importance of public opinion at New York University's Abu Dhabi campus. Looking at the most recent polling we have done across the Middle East and North Africa makes clear some of the problems facing this region while providing keys to solutions for some of the big issues, as well.

It is not only in Syria that we need to listen and learn. When we go next door to Iraq, where we see the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki making a power grab, exacerbating the risk of internal civil conflict, we find strong majorities deeply worried about the future of their country, rejecting division and favoring instead a government that can create jobs, end corruption, and provide the stability and basic services needed for all Iraqis to lead decent and productive lives.

While Iran's leadership is busy provocatively and aggressively playing their nuclear card, our polling there reveals that the democracy movement remains strong among Iranians. All across the country, the top priority concerns, in addition to employment, are democracy, civil and personal rights, political reform, and an end to corruption.

At the same time, polling in the Arab World also offers a cautionary warning to the West's strategy to confront Iran's leaders. While it is true that Iran's favorable ratings among Arabs have plummeted and are now less than one half of what they were just five years ago, should the West or Israel attack Iran, all bets are off. Since the only countries with significantly lower favorable ratings than Iran in the Arab region are the U.S. and Israel, the best way to resurrect Iran's ratings would be for the U.S. or Israel to attack it.

While we are looking at the U.S., it too needs to listen better to Arab opinion. America's favorable ratings among Arabs, which were at dangerously low levels during the Bush Administration, got a boost from the change in policy expected by the election of Barack Obama. Three years later, U.S. favorable ratings are lower than they were in 2008, as Arabs see no change in how America relates to the issue they still see as central to their relationship with the West—that is, the unresolved matter of Palestinian freedom and dignity.

Israel, too, should listen, but given that country's hard-line direction, they have become increasingly tone deaf to Arab and world opinion. Our polls show that the Arab public still supports the Arab League's peace initiative for a two state solution, but a majority of Arabs in every country no longer believe that Israel has any interest in making peace. Prime Minister Netanyahu's behavior and U.S. acquiescence to Israel's policies are radicalizing Arab opinion creating a more dangerous and volatile environment with every passing day.

We have also polled in the two Arab countries where uprisings brought down governments, creating the possibility for change. But those who have been newly elected in Tunisia and Egypt must now pay attention to what the voices of their countrymen are saying. In both countries the number one concern is expanding employment. While Tunisians also want an expansion of democracy, and "increasing women's rights" is high up on their list of political priorities, Egyptians are more focused on the basic needs of life and "ending corruption.” The success or failure of these "revolutions" will be measured by their ability to meet the expectations that inspired them.

Listening to opinion is also critical for other governments in the region. In Saudi Arabia, for example, far and away the number one concern is the need to expand employment. With a "youth bulge" necessitating the creation of three million new jobs over the next decade, Saudis want to know that their children will be educated and find meaningful work in their country. And in our surveys of business leaders in the Gulf region we find a growing concern that opportunities be created to support private sector economic growth, so that small businesses can become the engine driving this needed job creation. Business leaders recognize that it is simply not a sustainable situation for the government to be the "employer of first resort" absorbing this growing work force. The private sector must be involved.

As I explain in my recent book "Arab Voices: What they Are Saying to Us and Why It Matters" and now in my NYU course, Arab opinion matters. It clearly matters to the West which has long ignored Arab sentiment. But the views of the public matter within the region as well. The sooner leaders, East and West, listen and learn, the sooner real change can occur.

Opinion Polls

Arab Opinion Polls
Arab American Opinion Polls
American Opinion Polls

Arab Opinion Polls

Methodology Information for Arab Voices

The methodology information for the Zogby International surveys referenced in Arab Voices by Dr. James Zogby. Each survey was conducted using face‐to‐face interviews with respondents in major metropolitan areas identified through multi‐stage stratified sampling. All respondents were adults
18 and older. All surveys were conducted in Arabic or a local dialect. Margins of error are higher in sub‐groups.

During the month of September 2011, Zogby Research Services conducted surveys in Iraq, six other Arab countries, the United States, and Iran. AAI released three polls (Iraq; The War, Its Consequences & the Future; Poltical Concerns and Government; Social Media & the Arab Spring) on December 19, 2011.

Findings from this poll reveal no Arab support for the Syrian government and U.S. role viewed as negative.

This is an Arab American Institute poll with analysis by AAI President James Zogby. It was conducted between September 14 – October 3, 2011. Over 4,000 Arabs were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5% in Morocco, Egypt, KSA; and +/- 4.5% in Lebanon, Jordan, UAE.

Findings from this poll reveal no Arab support for the Syrian government and U.S. role viewed as negative.

Arab Attitudes Toward Iran (2011)

Findings from part two of the the latest Arab American Institute six Arab nations poll show real concern with Iran’s current and future role in the region.

The poll surveys six Arab nations’ attitudes towards Iran and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issues. The key finding is that a substantial majority of Arabs believe that Iran plays a negative role in both Iraq and the Arab Gulf region. Conducted during the first three weeks of June by Zogby International, over 4,000 Arabs were surveyed, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5% in Morocco, Egypt, KSA; and +/- 4.5% in Lebanon, Jordan, UAE.

With the 2008 election of Barack Obama, favorable attitudes toward the U.S. more than doubled in many Arab countries. But in the two years since his famous “Cairo speech,” ratings for both the U.S. and the President have spiraled downwards. The President is seen overwhelmingly as failing to meet the expectations set during his speech, and the vast majority of those surveyed disagree with U.S policies.

In five out of the six countries surveyed, the U.S. was viewed less favorably than Turkey, China, France—or Iran. Far from seeing the U.S. as a leader in the post-Arab Spring environment, the countries surveyed viewed “U.S. interference in the Arab world” as the greatest obstacle to peace and stability in the Middle East, second only to the continued Palestinian occupation.

Results for this survey are based on face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of Zogby International. All surveys are based on urban samples except in Lebanon where the sample was nationwide.

The tables show the margin of sampling error based on all interviews conducted in that country. For results based on the full sample in a given country, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

On Attitudes toward President Obama and the United States: Since President Barack Obama’s election, there has been a change in Arab attitude toward the United States. In Saudi Arabia (KSA), the UAE, Lebanon and Morocco, over 50 percent of the public polled say their attitude toward the United States is more positive as a result of Barack Obama being elected President. In Jordan and Egypt, a majority remains neutral with only about one-in-four saying their attitude has changed for the better. The UAE, however, is the only Arab country where a majority of respondents hold a favorable opinion of the United States overall.

6 Nation Survey of the Middle East: Arab Broadcast Forum (2008)

Results for this survey are based on face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of Zogby International. All surveys are based on urban samples except in Lebanon where the sample was nationwide.

The tables show the margin of sampling error based on all interviews conducted in that country. For results based on the full sample in a given country, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinions polls.

6 Nation Survey of the Middle East: Arab Economic Forum (2008)

Results for this survey are based on face-to-face interviews conducted under the direction of Zogby International. All surveys are based on urban samples except in Lebanon where the sample was nationwide.

The tables show the margin of sampling error based on all interviews conducted in that country. For results based on the full sample in a given country, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus the margin of error. In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinions polls.

Four Years Later: Arab Opinion Troubled By Consequences of Iraq War (2007)

Four years after the start of the US-led war in Iraq, the Arab world is deeply worried about the consequences of that conflict. Of particular concern is the degree to which the war has emboldened neighboring Iran and the heightened danger that Iraq, as a country, may unravel in a civil war that could spill over into the broader region.

These are a few of the highlights of the Zogby International (ZI)/Arab American Institute (AAI) poll conducted between February 26 and March 10, 2007. The poll, which surveyed 3,400 Arabs in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, UAE and Lebanon, had a margin of error of +/-3.5% in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and +/- 4.1% in Jordan, the UAE and Lebanon.

House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight, and Subcommittee on Middle East and Asia

For the past five years we at Zogby International have had the opportunity to poll regularly and extensively in countries across the Arab world. Some of our polls that have generated the greatest attention have been those that have focused on what Arabs think about America: our people, products, values, and our policies that affect their region. Equally significant, however, have been our groundbreaking surveys of Arab values, concerns, expectations, and needs.

5 Nation Survey of the Middle East (2006)

Continuing Conflict in Iraq and Palestine Deepens U.S.-Arab Rift with Growing Costs to Both Sides

Results of the 2006 AAI/Zogby International poll in 5 Arab countries show:

Arab Business Council: 6-Nation Survey (2006)

Impact of Events on Economic Development

Impact of Events on Political Stability

Better Off/Worse Off: vs. 4 Years Ago & vs. 4 Years From Now

Reform, Opportunity and Issues

Demographics

Arab Gulf Business Leaders Look to the Future (2006)

Significant developments are taking place in the Arab Gulf region. Dramatic increases in oil revenues have spurred what some are calling an “Arab Renaissance,” with record construction, investment, and growth observed in many of the area’s countries. At the same time, some of the region’s governments have taken new initiatives aimed at liberalizing their economies and, in varying degrees, their political systems. All of these positives, however, are occurring against the backdrop of worrisome destabilizing developments, some in the broader region and others in the Gulf itself.

Poll Shows Bases for Unity in Lebanon (2005)

Despite deep differences, which continue to divide the so-called “opposition” and “loyalist” movements in Lebanon, there are some important areas of agreement that could form the basis for national unity and democratic reform in that country. This is one of the initial findings of a new Zogby International/Information International poll taken in Lebanon during the second week of April 2005.

Rafic Hariri Assassination (2005)

The continuing signs of ferment in evidence in the streets of Beirut are being heralded in the US as signs that “another Middle East domino is falling.” The Bush Administration has been quick to latch on to the demonstrations as a validation of the President’s democracy campaign.

But as horrific as the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri was and as inspiring as the mass mobilization of the “cedar revolution” has been, the demonstrations don’t tell the whole story of what is happening in Lebanon today. A recent poll of 1,250 Lebanese, representing all religious groupings in the country, establishes that while an emerging consensus exists on some questions, on several key issues a deep sectarian divide still plagues the country. And these issues must be tended to if Lebanon’s unity and internal security are to be insured. The poll was conducted during the last week in February 2005 by a Lebanese polling firm, Information International, in conjunction with Zogby International.

Attitudes of Arabs (2005)

An In-Depth Look at Social and Political Concerns of Arabs

Arabs are looking more inward today, focusing on issues close to home and self-identifying more with their countries. And despite concerns with employment, most Arabs are quite optimistic about their future. These are some of the results of a new Zogby International poll conducted in the last half of October 2005. Commissioned by Young Arab Leaders, a Dubai based group, but supported, as well, by the Arab American Institute, the poll surveyed 3,900 Arabs from Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, and Jordan.

Arabs Want Reform, U.S. Help in Solving Israel-Palestine Crisis (2004)

A new survey commissioned by the Arab American Institute of Arab public opinion asked respondents to evaluate the importance of ten different reform issues and then to indicate how helpful they felt the U.S. could be in assisting their countries achieve each of those reforms. The poll surveyed attitudes of 2,600 adult Arabs in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, and the United Arab Emirates and was conducted by Zogby International.

Respondents listed the following issues as most important in rank order: expanding employment, settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, improving healthcare, and increasing access to education. Internal reform including curbing extremism and expanding civil rights were of moderate importance while democratic reform, women's rights, and increasing political debate were at the bottom of the list.

In June 2004, Zogby International surveyed almost 3,300 Arabs living in Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.
The poll was commissioned by the Arab American Institute as a follow-up to the 2002 “Impressions of America” study. Questions in this second “Impressions of America” poll focused on how Arabs view America and how Arabs learn about America.

The First Poll of Iraqi Public Opinion (2003)

Zogby International conducted interviews of 600 adults chosen at random with consideration of ethnic backgrounds, gender, religion and social class, throughout locations in Iraq. Interviews were conducted August 3-19, 2003 in Basra, Karkouk, Mousel and Al Ramadi. The ethnic groups (Arabs, Kurds, Turkaman, and Assyrians) were interviewed, in addition to the religious groups (Shiaa, Sunni and Christians). Interviewers traveled to public places (shopping areas and coffee shops) chosen from different social neighborhoods. The survey's margin of sampling error is +/- 4.1%.

Ten Nation Impressions of America (2002)

In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, Americans became painfully aware of the gap in understanding between our world and much of the Arab world. Front page headlines and newsmagazine cover stories asked “why do they hate us?’ Pundits and scholars across the ideological spectrum offered answers that ranged from the serious to the silly. Some suggested that the behavior of the attackers was not aberrant, but characteristic of Islam and its followers. They suggested that the West and Islam are not only different, but are inevitably headed toward a clash. Others suggested that “they” hate our democratic values, our superpower status, our wealth, and our people. Still others noted that it was our policy of unquestioning support for Israel, our denial of Palestinian rights, and our collaboration with authoritarian regimes in the Middle East that was behind “their” alienation from “us”.

Arabs: What They Believe and What They Value Most (2002)

The idea for this study came during a conversation with a prominent Arab thinker. We were discussing the profound gap in understanding between the U.S. and the Arab world that had become so painfully apparent following Sept. 11, 2001. We noted how, in an effort to bridge this gap, the U.S. had launched a public diplomacy campaign to help the Arab world better understand the American reality and the American people.

Arab American Opinion Polls

The Arab American Institute commissioned Zogby International to conduct a telephone poll of 404 Arab Americans nationwide. Samples were randomly drawn over national cds using Zogby International's list of Arab surnames. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Up to six calls are made to reach a sampled phone number. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies.2 Weighting by country of origin, religion, born in US, age, party, gender is used to adjust for non-response. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

On Monday, May 18, 2009 commentators John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International, and James Zogby, President of the Arab American Institute, joined respondent Amjad Atallah and moderator Farah Stockman to discuss the results of a recent poll that reveals a deep partisan divide over the path towards Middle East peace.

Zogby International conducted an omnibus telephone poll of Arab Americans nationwide between September 8th and September 13th, 2008.

The 2008 Election: The Arab American Vote

Zogby International conducted an omnibus telephone poll of likely Arab American voters between October 10 and october 15, 2008.

The target sample is 504 interviews with approximately 41 questions asked. Samples are randomly drawn over national congressional districts using Zogby International's list of Arab surnames in conjunction with a purchased surname list. Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges.

Defining the Arab American Vote (2007)

A plurality of Arab Americans identify as Democrats (39%) while over a quarter identify as Republicans (26%), and 28% say they are independent. The Democratic Party receives a plurality of support across all demographic subgroups, especially young, Catholic, and Orthodox voters.

In 2002, Americans for Peace Now (APN) and the Arab American Institute (AAI) commissioned Zogby International (ZI) to conduct the first ever side-by-side poll of Jewish and Arab American public opinion to gauge support within both communities for Arab-Israeli peace. With the region's political landscape significantly altered since the first poll was conducted—including the US war in Iraq, Israel's disengagement fromGaza, Hamas' victory in Palestinian legislative elections, and the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war—APN and AAI commissioned ZI in May 2007 to reexamine Jewish and Arab American public opinion.

The Arab American Vote in 2004

Poll of Arab American Voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida

Zogby International interviewed 500 Arab American registered voters, who had indicated a likelihood of voting on November 2. The poll has a margin of error of +/_ 4.5%. The voters came from four states (MI, OH, PA, FL), reflecting the overall demographic profile of the national Arab American community.

This survey was conducted by Zogby International. The Jewish American segment was completed on 7/6/03 and totaled 503 individuals. The Arab American segment was completed on 7/9/03 and totaled 500 individuals. In both samples, the margin of error was +/- 4.5%.

In May 2002, the Arab American Institute Foundation (AAIF) commissioned a survey of Arab American attitudes and behavior since September 11. The May survey is compared to a similar
poll commissioned by AAIF in October 2001, in the immediate aftermath of the terror attacks. On some variables a three-way comparison is made, including findings of a survey of Arab American attitudes taken in 2000.

Arab Americans are proud and committed Americans, who give strong support to President Bush's efforts to combat the terrorists who struck the United States. At the same time, Arab Americans are very concerned about the backlash that occurred after the September 11 terrorist attacks.The community, however, has remained committed to its beliefs and heritage.

These are some of the results of a Zogby International (ZI) poll of Arab American attitudes commissioned by the Arab American Institute (AAI).The ZI/AAI poll surveyed 508 randomly selected Arab Americans from October 8-10 and had a margin of error of +4.5%.The poll results can be grouped under three main headings.

What Ethnic Americans Really Think (2001)

We begin with a simple observation—America is a complex society. We are a nation of many diverse groups, each with different backgrounds and experiences. We do not all see life and its many issues in the same way. Shaped by our unique perspectives, we have a variety of beliefs and attitudes. For some of us, our race, ethnicity or religion is a determining factor that molds our general outlook or our views on specific issues. For others, it may be our income, education or age. On some issues, we make different assessments based on our gender or our marital status.

Arab Americans: Issues, Attitudes and Views (2000)

Until recently, the establishment of Arab Americans as an organized political constituency had been, for the most part, in a formative process. This year, however, Arab Americans have arrived as an independent-minded and highly motivated political force with a common agenda.

The Arab American Vote: 1996-2002

Zogby International surveyed 500 Arab American voters during the last week of October 2002. The poll, commissioned by the Arab American Institute, has a margin of error of +/-4.5%.

American Opinion Polls

More than four-in-five Americans (81%) agree the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has a negative impact on U.S. interests, including a majority of both Democrats (88%) and Republicans (77%), a new Arab American Institute/Zogby Interactive survey finds. While Americans agree the conflict has a negative impact, they are split about how to deal with the situation. Fifty percent of Americans agree the Obama Administration should steer a middle course in pursuing peace in the Middle East.

Zogby International was commissioned by Dr. James Zogby to conduct an online survey of 2100 adults. A sampling of Zogby International's online panel, which is representative of the adult population of the US, was invited to participate. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, education to more accurately reflect the population. The margin of error is +/- 2.2 percentage points. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups. The MOE calculation is for sampling error only.

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1,005 likely voters chosen at random, nationwide. Conducted from April 2 to 4, the poll surveyed opinion on the Arab Israel conflict. Margin of error is +/- 3.2%.

American voters are demonstrating an increasingly favorable attitude toward Arab countries. Commissions by Abu Dhabi Television and AAI the poll interviewed 1012 randomly selected U.S. voters from December 18 to 21, 2000. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

American voters support the implementation of Palestinian rights in any future Middle East peace agreement. A survey of 890 likely voters nation-wide shows 66 percent of Americans support the Palestinians right to independent statehood - with only 13 percent opposed.

On April 3, 1998, 81 U.S. Senators (out of 100) sent a letter to U.S. President Bill Clinton insisting that he not use public pressure against Israel in an effort to break the impasse in the Middle East peace process.

A recent poll of U.S. voters, however, demonstrates that this one-sided view held by the U.S. Congress is totally out of touch with U.S. public opinion on Middle East issues.

The poll, commissioned by Al Majallah Magazine and the Arab American Institute (AAI) of Washington, D.C., was conducted by the New York firm of Zogby International. From April 19 to April 22 1998 the Al Majallah/AAI poll interviewed 969 randomly selected U.S. voters. The poll’s findings have a margin of error of +- 3.3 percent.

U.S. Public Opinion is overwhelmingly decided that Israel Should "stop building the new settlement (at Jabal Abu Ghnaim) and restart peace talks with the Palestinians. This poll was conducted for As Sharq Al Awsat and AAI by Zogby International.

The AAI Poll conducted by the John Zogby Group of New York was the first such survey of U.S. public opinion attitudes towards the status of Jerusalem. The poll surveyed 900 registered voters from July 17 to 20, 1995 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.3%

Opinion Polls

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Arab Opinion Polls

Arab American Opinion Polls

American Opinion Polls

Arab Opinion Polls
Arab American Opinion Polls
American Opinion Polls