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Fauci Says there Will Be Coronavirus in the Fall, 88 % of Patients on Ventilators didn't Make it In New York's Largest Hospital System
April 22, 2020
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In a tribute to health care workers, first responders and essential workers, the Bryant Park Corporation created a heart on its newly seeded 1.1-acre lawn at Bryant Park in midtown Manhattan on April 22, 2020 |
Members of the NYPD Honor Guard, wearing masks, participate in the funeral Traffic Section Commander, Mohammed Chowdhury in New York, April 22, 2020 |
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make it
By Ariana Eunjung
Washingto Post, April 23, 2020
In New York’s largest hospital system, 88 percent of coronavirus patients on ventilators didn’t make it
Throughout March, as the pandemic gained momentum in the United States, much of the preparations focused on the breathing machines that were supposed to save everyone’s lives.
New York State Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) and President Trump sparred over how many ventilators the state was short. DIYers brainstormed modifications to treat more patients. And ethicists agonized over how to allocate them fairly if we run out.
Now five weeks into the crisis, a paper published in the journal JAMA about New York State’s largest health system suggests a reality that like so much else about the novel coronavirus, confounds our early expectations.
Researchers found that 20 percent of all those hospitalized died — a finding that’s similar to the percentage who perish in normal times among those who are admitted for respiratory distress.
But the numbers diverge more for the critically ill put on ventilators. Eighty-eight percent of the 320 covid-19 patients on ventilators who were tracked in the study died. That compares with the roughly 80 percent of patients who died on ventilators before the pandemic, according to previous studies — and with the roughly 50 percent death rate some critical care doctors had optimistically hoped when the first cases were diagnosed.
“For those who have a severe enough course to require hospitalization through the emergency department it is a sad number,” said Karina W. Davidson, the study’s lead author and a professor at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research at Northwell.
The analysis is the largest and most comprehensive look at outcomes in the United States to be published so far. Researchers looked at the electronic medical records of 5,700 patients infected with covid-19 between Mar. 1 and Apr. 4 who were treated at Northwell Health’s 12 hospitals located in New York City, Long Island, and Westchester County — all epicenters of the outbreak. Sixty percent were male, 40 percent female and the average age was 63.
“It’s important to look to American data as we have different resources in our health care system and different demographics in our populations,” Davidson said.
The paper also found that of those who died, 57 percent had hypertension, 41 percent were obese and 34 percent had diabetes which is consistent with risk factors listed by the Centers for Disease for Control and Prevention. Noticeably absent from the top of the list was asthma. As doctors and researchers have learned more about covid-19, the less it seems that asthma plays a dominant role in outcomes.
One other surprising finding from the study was that 70 percent of the patients sick enough to be admitted to the hospital did not have a fever. Fever is currently listed as the top symptom of covid-19 by the CDC, and for weeks, many testing centers for the virus turned away patients if they did not have one.
Davidson said that as a result of that findings, Northwell is encouraging people with underlying health conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes, who are potentially exposed to the virus and who might not have a fever to consult with a doctor sooner rather than later.
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'Convinced': Fauci says there will be coronavirus in the fall after Trump says 'it may not come back'
Savannah Behrmann,
USA TODAY, April 23, 2020
WASHINGTON –
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, appeared to contradict President Donald Trump's notion that the coronavirus may not reappear for a second wave in the fall.
"It may not come back at all," Trump said Wednesday during a White House briefing.
He discussed the return of COVID-19 after quibbling with a report that said CDC Director Robert Redfield warned of a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak in the fall that could be worse because it could coincide with the opening of the flu season.
"He's talking about a worst-case scenario where you have a big flu and you have some (coronavirus). And if it does come back, it's not going to come back ... like it was. Also, we have much better containment now," Trump said.
"Before nobody knew about it. Nobody knew anything about it. Now, if we have pockets, a little pocket here or there, we're going to have it put out. It goes out, and it’s going to go out fast. We’re going to be watching for it. But it’s also possible it doesn’t come back at all."
The president claimed a comeback of coronavirus later in the
year will not be "anything near what we went through," regarding the
pandemic that is still ongoing.
This outbreak became widespread
in March when the number of flu cases normally begins to taper off.
Redfield warned that if hospitals had to respond to another coronavirus
outbreak at the same time as flu cases, both of which affect the
respiratory system, the health care system could be overwhelmed.
Contributing: William Cummings.
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US State-by-state coronavirus news |
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