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Lebanese Protesters Do Not Trust Traditional Leaders, Demand a Technocrat Government

October 25, 2019

Editor's Note:

Watching interviews with Lebanese protesters in Arabic media, it's become clear that they no longer trust the corrupt traditional sectarian system of government, which brought the country to its knees economically, spreading poverty among vast categories of people.

As a result, they have been calling for a technocrat government, without any association with any of the current sectarian parties, to save the country. They also demand the restoration of the looted funds and putting thieves on trial.

 

Lebanese protesters flying the national flag alone, which is a departure from flying party and sectarian flags and symbols in the past

 

Reeling from protests, what’s next for Lebanon?

The Daily Star, Oct. 25, 2019

Samia NakhoulTom Perry| Reuters

BEIRUT: Lebanon has been swept by unprecedented protests against a political class accused of plundering state resources for personal gain, bringing turmoil to the streets of a nation already in deep economic crisis. As politicians ponder ways out, the clock is ticking because of financial strains on the heavily indebted state, which is struggling to pay bills and where dollars have grown scarce.

How might the crisis play out in coming days?

WHAT ARE POSSIBLE POLITICAL SOLUTIONS?

Protesters are demanding the “downfall of the regime,” the slogan of the Arab Spring that toppled four leaders in 2011.

But complicating any negotiations, they have no clear leadership and Lebanon’s sectarian politics has numerous centers of power.

Moreover, old rivalries among leaders are resurfacing.

The main parties could agree a reshuffle that leaves Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri in office but replaces prominent ministers with technocrats seen as better qualified to enact badly needed reforms.

Such a solution, which has been under discussion, would need the support of all the main parties.

The administration must also conform with sectarian power-sharing quotas among Christian and Muslim sects.

This may not satisfy protesters, who know that decisions would remain in the hands of the dominant parties.

Hariri’s option to quit is off the table for now since he and several major parties feel it would plunge Lebanon deeper into crisis at a dangerous time and his coalition partners have approved reforms he announced Monday.

“The real problem is that you cannot bring any prime minister other than Saad because there is no [other] Sunni to parachute now and he is the only one who has international support,” a former minister said.

The prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim according to Lebanon’s sectarian system.

Some politicians may be hoping that protester fatigue will set in and ease pressure, allowing the government to continue unchanged so it can implement reforms.

Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said: “The more likely scenario is there might be some ministerial change ... to remove some of the figures who are quite unpopular.”

HOW BAD IS THE ECONOMY?

The protests have been fueled by crippling economic conditions. Exacerbating matters, capital inflows vital to financing the state deficit and imports have been slowing down.

Ordinary Lebanese are feeling this. Dollars have become hard to obtain at the official exchange rate of 1,507.5 pounds. A dollar cost 1,680 pounds Thursday, one currency dealer said.

Dollar reserves have been used to pay off maturing foreign currency debt. The governor has said this month the Central Bank was ready to repay future debt.

The state has repeatedly vowed to preserve the currency peg and honor debts on time. The Central Bank has said it will continue to secure the hard currency needs of the public and private sectors at unchanged fixed rates.

But Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil suggested last week Lebanon might run out of funds by the end of the year, noting he had warned other leaders of this in September.

“I also said that what little remains of the financial balance might not last us longer than the end of the year if we do not adopt the necessary policies,” he said, without describing what he meant by financial balance.

Without a foreign funding boost, Lebanon risks a currency devaluation or even defaulting on debt within months, according to interviews with nearly 20 government officials, politicians, bankers and investors conducted by Reuters this month.

Against this backdrop, banks have not opened for more than a week, concerned that savers will try to pull out their money and that they could be attacked by demonstrators who partly blame financial institutions for the situation, bankers said.

“People will rush the banks to transfer their money or withdraw cash,” said Sarkis Naoum, a commentator at Lebanon’s An-Nahar newspaper. “This is why they are not daring to open.”

Measures proposed by Hariri this week to promote reform and appease the protesters included a $3.4 billion contribution from the Central Bank and commercial banks.

Ratings agency Moody’s warned confidence in the government’s ability to service its debt could be further undermined by the plan, which forces banks to accept lower interest on its debt.

WILL FOREIGN STATES STEP IN?

Foreign states and institutions last year offered Lebanon some $11 billion in soft loans, but first want to see reforms.

There has been no sign of a rush to help.

Gulf states that could once have been relied on for help are alarmed by the influence wielded in Beirut by the Iran-backed Hezbollah.

A senior U.S. State Department official said the Lebanese people were “rightfully angered” with a government that had refused to tackle endemic corruption.

“Suddenly they have liquidity issues, there are concerns about devaluation of the currency, this is something that’s been on the agenda, on the horizon, for some time,” the official said. “This is not a situation where the Lebanese government should get necessarily a bailout. ... They should do the reform.”

Earlier this month, the prime minister said Lebanon had been promised financial assistance from the United Arab Emirates.

This has yet to materialize.

HOW BAD COULD THIS GET?

If the pound is devalued sharply and people cannot get money from the banks, commentator Naoum said chaos would ensue.

Looting last week could be a sign of what is to come.

“We will run into chaos,” Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center added.

“If the price of the dollar continues to rise ... this will mean that purchasing power will diminish. The poor will get poorer and many will try to use the chaos to try to make a living. It might turn into rioting at some point.”

WHO COULD FORCE A SOLUTION?

Analysts say any solution would have to brokered by the powerful Hezbollah on the one hand, and Hariri, aligned with the West and Arab countries, on the other.

Only Hezbollah, they say, could impose a compromise that sees some ministers targeted by protesters replaced, notably Aoun’s son-in-law Bassil, a political ally of Hezbollah.

Analysts and politicians say Hezbollah would opt to push for a reshuffle to appease protesters, many of whom are from their own Shiite constituency, rather than see force deployed against them.

  A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Daily Star on October 25, 2019, on page 3.

https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2019/Oct-25/494289-reeling-from-protests-whats-next-for-lebanon.ashx 

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Protesters Continue To Fill Streets Of Lebanon, United By Their Calls For Change

NPR, October 22, 2019

Laurel Wamsley

For days, people have gathered in the central squares of cities across Lebanon. They've chanted, they've sung, they've carried cheeky signs.

What do they want? Wholesale change in their political system. When do they want it? Now.

The government took notice, and announced a raft of changes: No new taxes. Halving government officials' salaries. Privatizing the telecom industry because cellphone plans in the county are so expensive. Fast-tracking licenses for new power plants, as there are daily electricity cuts in most Lebanese cities.

If the government had hoped that the plans they announced would get the protesters to go home, it didn't work. Instead, protesters continue to demand that Prime Minister Saad Hariri resign.

"They just go up now on TV and give a speech just to shut us up," said 22-year-old Sophie Akkouri. While her friends are moving abroad for better opportunities, she's protesting in Beirut because she wants change in her own country. "We're not going. We're going to stay here until they all resign."

The demonstrations began as a vehement response to the government's new tax proposals, including one on phone calls that take place over WhatsApp. But the public pressure has grown into an impassioned censure of Hariri's government itself.

These are the largest demonstrations in the country since 2005, when Prime Minister Rafik Hariri – Saad's father — was assassinated in a car bombing in Beirut. That triggered street protests against the Syrian military presence in the country, demonstrations known as the Cedar Revolution. Syria subsequently withdrew its forces from Lebanon.

Lebanon's political system allocates power among the country's three largest religious communities — Christian, Sunni and Shia. The system has been credited with keeping the country fairly peaceful since 1990, but it's now criticized as spawning corruption and enshrining a ruling elite.

The protests have the feeling of a carnival, and they're uniting the country across sectarian divides, a sensation new to many of those participating.

"I feel euphoric," said Mohammed Ballaghi, 33. "For the first time, I see the people of my country standing united together against this tyranny. I'm very proud to say I'm Lebanese because the Lebanese people are not scared anymore. They are not sectarian pieces of [expletive] anymore."

NPR International Correspondent Daniel Estrin contributed to this report from Beirut.

https://www.npr.org/2019/10/22/772312235/protestors-continue-to-fill-streets-of-lebanon-united-by-their-calls-for-change

Top banking official: operations to fully resume when Lebanon crisis ends

The Daily Star, October 24, 2019

BEIRUT:

Banks in Lebanon will stay closed for safety reasons until stability returns, the banking association said Thursday, as protesters flood the streets demanding the government resigns.

A senior banking official told Reuters he hoped the country's political crisis would end soon and that operations would fully resume once it does.

"Once normalcy is restored, we are very confident that we can resume servicing our customers in full capacity," said Salim Sfeir, chairman of ABL and Bank of Beirut. "We have operated in the past in the darkest and most difficult moments, and never defaulted or neglected our obligations."

Banks have shut their doors for six working days.

They will remain closed Friday for the safety of customers, employees and properties, the ABL said. They would provide month-end wages via ATMs, it said in a statement, carried on the state news agency NNA.

Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri as part of his emergency reform package also said the banking sector would shell out 5.1 trillion Lebanese pounds ($3.4 billion) to help cut the 2020 budget deficit, including through a tax hike on profits.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Lebanon-News/2019/Oct-24/494282-top-banking-official-operations-to-fully-resume-when-lebanon-crisis-ends.ashx

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